Ryan O'Loughlin

Philosophy of science · Queens College, CUNY

Trust without truth.

How do idealized, imperfect models give us knowledge we can rely on?

Three ways imperfect models earn trust.

The work, at full resolution.

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  • What agreement between models can and can't tell us.
  • Finding and fixing what went wrong.
  • Learning more when models fail.

Philosophy of science · Queens College, CUNY

Trust without truth.

How do idealized, imperfect models give us knowledge we can rely on?

Three themes

  1. Antifragility Learning more when models fail.
  2. Errors Finding and fixing what went wrong.
  3. Robustness What agreement between models can and can't tell us.

The work

Antifragility

Learning more when models fail.

  1. 2026
    Antifragility in scientific modeling Talk · Asian Philosophy of Science Association, Singapore
  2. 2026
    Weather and climate modeling: value across disciplines (panel) Talk · LEAP Annual Meeting, Columbia University
  3. 2025
    Why imperfect climate models are more helpful than you think Outreach · Yale Climate Connections · also robustness Link
  4. 2024
    Why we need lower-performance climate models Selected work Paper · Climatic Change DOI
  5. 2023
    Can subpar models contribute to climate justice? The case of geoengineering research Talk · Society for Social Studies of Science, Honolulu
  6. 2023
    Why we should want models to disagree: the value of “bad” models in climate science Talk · NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
  7. 2021
    Geoengineering and climate change: the ethical, the practical, and the wicked Teaching · Indiana University

Errors

Finding and fixing what went wrong.

  1. 2026
    Earning credibility in AI-driven climate science: the role of component-level understanding Talk · European Geosciences Union
  2. 2026
    From models to field experiments: when is solar geoengineering research worth doing? Talk · CUNY Graduate Center, Earth and Environmental Sciences · also antifragility
  3. 2026
    The productive role of error in AI-driven modeling Selected work Grant · Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, 2026–2028 (PI) · also antifragility
  4. 2026
    When are small-scale field experiments in solar geoengineering worth pursuing? Selected work Paper · European Journal for Philosophy of Science · with Daniele Visioni · also antifragility DOI
  5. 2026
    When are small-scale field experiments in solar geoengineering worth pursuing? (poster) Talk · Gordon Research Conference on Climate Engineering · also antifragility
  6. 2025
    Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling Selected work Paper · Geoscientific Model Development · with Dan Li, Richard Neale, Travis A. O'Brien DOI
  7. 2025
    Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling (poster) Talk · Gordon Research Conference, Machine Learning for Actionable Climate Science
  8. 2025
    Moving beyond post-hoc XAI: lessons learned from dynamical climate modelling Talk · NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Machine Learning group · with Dan Li
  9. 2025
    When are small-scale field experiments in solar geoengineering worth pursuing? Talk · World Climate Research Programme, workshop series on stratospheric aerosol injection · also antifragility
  10. 2024
    Can philosophers help make advances in climate modeling? Talk · Minnesota Center for Philosophy of Science
  11. 2023
    A philosophical take on error and lower-skill models in climate science Talk · Queens College School of Earth and Environmental Sciences Colloquium · also antifragility
  12. 2023
    Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons Paper · European Journal for Philosophy of Science · also robustness DOI
  13. 2023
    Diagnosing errors in climate model intercomparisons Talk · Long Island Philosophical Society, St. John's University · also robustness
  14. 2023
    Holism in climate modeling Talk · NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies · with Dan Li
  15. 2023
    PSC-CUNY Research Grant, Cycle 54 Grant · PSC-CUNY
  16. 2023
    Research travel to NCAR Grant · Queens College Research Enhancement Grant and Mellon Foundation Fund
  17. 2023
    The value of error and failure in climate modeling: a philosophical perspective Talk · World Climate Research Programme Open Science Conference · also antifragility
  18. 2022
    Why we should want models to disagree: the value of error diagnosis and low-skill models in climate science Talk · NCAR Climate and Global Dynamics Laboratory · also antifragility

Robustness

What agreement between models can and can't tell us.

  1. 2026
    Logic and Scientific Reasoning Teaching · Queens College
  2. 2026
    Trust without truth: how philosophy can help science navigate uncertainty Talk · Keynote, LaGuardia Philosophy and Social Science Conference · also errors, antifragility
  3. 2026
    When are small-scale field experiments in solar geoengineering worth pursuing? Talk · Resources for the Future and Harvard SRM Research Workshop
  4. 2026
    Why practice-oriented philosophy of the geosciences is essential: the case of model robustness Paper · Comprehensive Philosophy of Science: Philosophy of the Geosciences (forthcoming) · with Stuart Gluck, Elisabeth A. Lloyd
  5. 2025
    Convergence, divergence, and trust in climate models Talk · CUNY Advanced Science Research Center
  6. 2025
    From robustness to antifragility: a philosophical perspective on climate and Earth system models Talk · Brown University, Earth, Environmental, and Planetary Sciences · also antifragility
  7. 2025
    Philosophy of the Environment Teaching · Queens College (taught 2022–2025)
  8. 2025
    Philosophy of the Natural Sciences: pluralism and Indigenous perspectives on climate science Teaching · Queens College (cross-listed with Environmental Sciences)
  9. 2025
    PSC-CUNY Research Grant, Cycle 56 Grant · PSC-CUNY
  10. 2023
    CUNY Climate Consortium (C3) Outreach · CUNY, 2023–present
  11. 2023
    Why should we trust (climate) models if they're all wrong? Teaching · Queens College (cross-listed with Environmental Sciences)
  12. 2022
    Competition and pluralism in climate modeling Talk · Philosophy of Science Association, Pittsburgh
  13. 2022
    Model robustness in economics: the admissibility and evaluation of tractability assumptions Paper · Synthese · with Dan Li DOI
  14. 2021
    Climate model comparisons: history and philosophical implications Talk · Canadian Society for the History and Philosophy of Science
  15. 2021
    Historical and contemporary climate model intercomparisons: lessons for pluralism in modeling Talk · European Philosophy of Science Association
  16. 2021
    Robustness reasoning in climate model comparisons Paper · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A DOI
  17. 2021
    The influence of climate contrarianism on scientific research Outreach · CSHPS Communiqué, no. 104 Link
  18. 2021
    Tractability assumptions, holism, and model robustness Talk · Philosophy of Science Association, Baltimore
  19. 2020
    Seepage, objectivity, and climate science Paper · Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A DOI

Coupled to

Every model is coupled to others. Thank you to everyone this one runs on.

Climate and Earth system modeling

Philosophy of science

  • Elisabeth A. Lloyd Indiana University also Climate and Earth system modeling
  • Dan Li O'Loughlin Inc. also Climate and Earth system modeling, AI and machine learning
  • Yoichi Ishida Ohio University

AI and machine learning

Climate policy and intervention

  • Stuart Gluck U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Science also Philosophy of science